After 10 years in hiding, one of the world’s most wanted men will be brought to book. Will Serbia finally be able to put its tortured past behind it and look to the future?
On Monday the 21st, the office of the Serbian president released a short and undetailed statement announcing “Radovan Karadzic was located and arrested tonight.” There is little information at present as to the circumstances under which such a detainment occurred, only that in accordance with the Hague Tribunal’s directive he was brought before Belgrade’s war crimes court. The capture was celebrated as a “milestone” by the chief prosecutor Serge Brammertz of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. President Tadic of Serbia must also be celebrating this small victory for his pro Europe party in meeting another condition for EU accession talks. With another Yugoslav war criminal arrested and another loose end of the country’s unpleasant past tied up, surely now a modern Serbia can look to the prospects of its future, rather than its past.
One of the most important prospects looming in Serbia’s near future is the possibility of accession to the EU. The capture of Karadzic this week has made this a more likely possibility as it fulfils a precondition for accession. The EU enlargement commissioner Ollie Rehn stressed in 1995 the importance of bringing Karadzic “to justice…that is the only way of achieving reconciliation and moving towards EU membership.” The importance of Serbian integration into the EU cannot be stressed enough. Slovenia, the only one of the former Yugoslav republics to yet join the EU experienced significant change in its transition from communist state to EU member. Its intent to join the EU had tangible effects on its economic growth as GDP p.a. accelerated, most noticeably in the 2002-4 period between the invitation to join and accession to the EU. This stood in contrast to the recession experienced in the 2000 –2001 period before EU membership was certain. The arrest of Karadzic means that less and less holds Serbia back from huge economic development through membership of the EU.
Indeed the government in power, that of the pro-EU Boris Tadic, wish to follow in Slovenia’s footsteps and were working on a stabilisation and association agreement with the EU until it was blocked by the Netherlands in February. This is a tangible sign of progression from the former war torn state. Furthermore this is evidence of political maturity as Serbian’s support less and less the divisive and xenophobic nationalism which tore Yugoslavia apart. A certain sign of healing and a hope for the future.
A more symbolic sign of conclusion is the final breakup of Yugoslavia, occurring initially with Montenegro seceding in 2006 and Kosovo in 2008. The ending of the Federation that had been the Socialist Yugoslav republic in essence closes the chapter on Tito, Milosevic and the post-war era. This was a time of frugality and political restriction which many in the Balkans hope not to experience again, not least because of the consequences of putting the wrong man in the strong man position, as so clearly Slobodan Milosevic was. Now freed from an ostensibly unworkable federation, in which few parties were happy, Serbia’s infighting can stop, allowing it to focus (as shown in its recent parliamentary elections) on the prospect of Europe.
However, both Kosovo and Montenegro have left deep scars, namely along the lines of ethnic division. As cleanly cut as the national borders are, the Diaspora of cultural identities are not. There is a Serb minority in the North of Kosovo which identifies with the mother country strongly. Indeed many Serbs in Kosovo, like those in Serbia itself, have refused to recognise the secession of the fledgling state. This has added new grievances to the already long list that has served to create animosity between the Albanian majority in Kosovo and the Serbs. The usually responsible head of President Tadic has succumbed to an unfortunate, but perhaps politically unavoidable bout of nationalism on this count. His government has refused to recognise Kosovo’s independence. This decision was driven by a number of factors. Primarily the presence of a general election (that Mr. Tadic’s party was widely expected to loose) required campaign politics to soothe the fears of conservative Serbians who had enough to swallow with Mr. Tadic’s support for EU integration. The main nationalist party in Serbia had wide support for anti-EU policies due to the Union’s part in Kosovo and was expected to align with the other half of Mr. Tadic’s coalition, led by Mr. Kostunica. Trying to salvage one’s government is understandable. So is having a personal objection to the break-up of one’s country. Being a Serb Mr. Tadic was perhaps entitled to that feeling of patriotism. However, it is obvious to everyone that there could be no prevention, change or reverse to Kosovo’s action. Stubbornness from a responsible leader seems like only so much grand standing and petulance and reflects too much the tendencies of the political xenophobes that abound in Serbia’s opposition parties. Here one can see that Serbia has still not recovered from Yugoslavia’s break up. Its party politics reflect a country too afraid of the outside world and still longing for the dream of a Greater Serbia. In this respect, the country is not ready for the future.
A more obvious problem for Serbia in moving on from its past is that Radovan Karadzic is not the end of the story. Whilst he will certainly be made to atone for Srebrenica, Ratko Mladic is still at large. This man was a central figure in the perpetration of some of the worst atrocities suffered by civilians during the troubles of the last decade. His capture is another precondition set by Ollie Rehn for accession talks to start. Whilst to all intents and purposes those talks have already started, it is hard to see their completion or Serbia’s accession without men such as Ratko Mladic, a man accused of Crimes against Humanity, being brought to justice.
Mladic’s freedom is evidence that Serbia’s past still has loose ends to tie up. The country is not ready to move on because it can’t. The ghost of genocide stands in its way. The only way Serbia will free itself from its past and finally begin its progress to modernity and prosperity is through Europe, a way blocked no longer by Radovan Karadzic, but Ratko Mladic. Mladic’s rogue status is more than just a thorn in Serbia’s side, it is a roadblock to accession. His arrest warrant is gathering dust. Let us hope that it is not for much longer.
InternationalReview 