Western leaders have turned away from the troubles of one of the world’s most repressed countries as global recession has gripped the headlines. The world must not be allowed to forget.
More than a year ago, the promise of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s election victory of 1990 seemed soon to be fulfilled. Burma’s streets thronged with monks protesting against the junta’s recent hikes in fuel prices. This week long demonstration against the absolute authority of the state was heralded as a sea change in Burmese society but ended, as challenges to Burma’s ruling elite had before, in devastating failure. However, this latest protest, differing in both protagonists and approach, showed more clearly than ever before that the iron grip of Than Shwe will not slacken.
Many comparisons were drawn between last year and the protests of 1990. But it was not the street protests themselves which were unusual. Rather it was the actors who were remarked upon. The significance of the Buddhist brotherhoods taking to the streets cannot not be understated. Monks hold a sacred position in Burmese life. They are revered and respected and, before last year, they were the one enclave of society upon which the military administration would not seek to impinge their authority. Their defiance last year represented the first authoritative opposition the junta had encountered.
Many might argue that the election winners of 1990, the National League for Democracy, had authority through popular mandate. Such an argument has merit seen from the perspective of western liberalism. And indeed like the NLD, the monks were eventually crushed. This is to ignore, however, two aspects of Burmese society and history. First, the elections of 1990 were held under the grace of the military administration. Any government which was to be formed out of the elections needed the consent of the junta. Here the military held all of the cards.
Second, because of the monks’ revered position, their rebuffs and recalcitrance to the military; such as refusing to accept alms, took on a spiritual as well as political significance. The monks had religious leverage and consequently their challenge was taken incredibly seriously by the people.
Given all this, the violent repression that ensued shows that there is no area of society against which Than Shwe will not raise his hand. This is all the more depressing for democracy campaigners within Burma and without. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s constant appeals to the west for help, and the results thus far, have shown that change in Burma must come from within. According to former South East Asian ambassador Derek Tonkin, China is not as close to the leadership as many imagine. Indeed the paranoia of Than Shwe’s regime is such that advice from any foreign party would be taken with grave suspicion. The Junta’s closest allies, according to Tonkin, are more likely to be Thailand’s top generals. Recent unrest in Thailand coupled with ASEAN’s ineffectual dealings in political matters, strongly suggest pressure from change will not come from that quarter.
Some commentators wait with baited breath for Than Shwe’s death and opportunities for change. But his assumption of command 17 years ago was heralded as a new era also. The Burmese people are caught in an unfortunate catch 22. They are too afraid to act against the junta alone, but only they can initiate change. Therefore the world must wait for discontent in Burma to reach critical mass. Whilst we wait, we must not forget.
