The leader of Malaysia’s opposition coalition promised in the summer to bring down the government by Malaysia Day. Three months on, Anwar Ibrahim has offered nothing but suspense, and political change in Malaysia looks less likely than ever.
All is quiet on the wires. The journalists have stopped writing. In fact, the promise of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to form a new government on the coattails of a mass defection from the Malaysian government benches might very well never have happened.
This at least appears to be the case. The deadline given my Mr. Ibrahim to effect a change of power was September 16th, Malaysia day. Now over two months on, even allowing for the “delay” that Mr. Ibrahim said might happen due to a Parliamentarians’ visit to Taiwan, it is evident that this dramatic change of power will not happen. The question is, was it ever really going to happen? If not, why did Anwar promise it? Finally, what hope is there for the future of democracy in Malaysia?
On the first point, Mr. Ibrahim may have thought that a large defection was possible, given the unpopularity of the ruling Barisan National (National Front) coalition and his personal landslide victory at a by-election in the summer. Many young Malaysians are tired of the corrupt regime and are avid readers of internet blogs, such as the fiercely critical Malaysia Today blog, run by Raja Petra. Along with this is the festering resentment by the large Chinese and Indian minorities of the preferential treatment received in all aspects of life by “sons of the soil” [read: ethnic Malays]. The ethnic minority parties are part of the opposition coalition and it is doubtful whether many ordinary Chinese or Indians feel represented by Barisan National. These trends show a desire for change from many quarters of Malaysian society. However, the ruling party, UMNO (United Malays National Organisation) still holds a vice like grip on Malaysian society. The party controls most official media, both in print and on the air and the traditional party base is a bedrock of stability. Whilst Barisan lost its supermajority in the lower House this year, it still retained a majority it has held since the nation’s independence. The unpopular Prime Minister, Abdullah Badawi is due to be replaced before the next election by his deputy Najib Razak, which may also help turn the tide of opinion.
So if, given the evidence, the defection was never really going to happen, then why did Anwar set himself up like this? Wishful thinking or delusion may have played a part. But Mr. Ibrahim has proved himself too effective an operator in the past to get drawn into such a vanity trap. Tactical bluffing would seem a more likely reason. Built on the premise of an imminent threat of a mass defection, it would precipitate a mass defection. Ultimately it was a strategy which did not pay off. Mr. Badawi clearly outmanoeuvred Anwar Ibrahim, both geographically and politically. Barisan MPs where sent on a fact finding mission to Taiwan just before National day, so as to delay any possible action. Barisan MPs also appeared remarkably loyal for a party based on the ownership of power and not ideals. Indeed, at a time when the government was at its weakest, in the wake of losing its supermajority in Parliament, the opposition has the best opportunity in Malaysia’s history to unseat the ruling party. The very fact that it failed in this endeavour is a testament to Barisan’s strength.
If anything, this suggests that the political landscape of Malaysia is far from radical change and that opposition activists, such as Mr. Petra, will have to content themselves with blogging and the internet as their only outlet. For opposition parties and MPs, such as Anwar Ibrahim, there is no place for them yet in Malaysian politics.
